The business world is changing rapidly, and your current leadership programme might not be keeping up.
If you’re still assessing potential based on past performance or visible competencies, you could be missing the hidden traits that predict future success. The truth is, identifying high-potential leaders is about far more than just tracking what someone has already achieved. It’s about looking ahead, digging deep, and discovering the psychological traits that enable leaders to thrive in an unpredictable world.
At The Work Psychologists, we regularly receive urgent requests for help when organisations find their leaders derailing—often after they've been promoted or placed in positions they aren’t suited for. These crises could have been avoided had their leadership potential been assessed at the point of hire, rather than only when things started going wrong. Far too many organisations fail to assess future leadership capabilities early on, relying instead on models like the Nine-Box Grid, which not only misclassifies potential but also leaves organisations scrambling when problems arise.
The Dangers of the Nine-Box Grid
The Nine-Box Grid has been widely used for decades, positioning employees based on their current performance and perceived potential. It’s simple, it’s visual—but it’s also deeply flawed. The fundamental issue with the Nine-Box Grid is its over-reliance on subjective judgment, particularly from direct managers. Studies have shown that manager bias is a significant factor in HiPo assessments, with 73% of programmes depending on manager nominations (Van Iddekinge et al., 2019).
Moreover, the Nine-Box Grid tends to conflate current performance with potential, which is a critical mistake. Research by Silver and Church (2009) highlights that performance and potential are fundamentally different constructs, with performance focusing on past achievements while potential is about future capability. A study by Korn Ferry (2020) found that nearly 40% of employees placed in the “high potential” box of the grid failed to meet future leadership expectations. Why? Because the grid doesn’t account for the deep psychological traits—like cognitive agility, learning orientation, and motivation—that are the strongest predictors of leadership potential.
The result? Many organisations are promoting people who excel in their current roles but lack the ability to thrive in more complex, fast-evolving environments. By assessing leadership potential only after something goes wrong, organisations miss out on identifying potential leaders early on. Waiting until a leader is already derailing is far too late. Proactively assessing for leadership potential at the point of hire could save organisations from future headaches, costly interventions, and even leadership crises.
Why Assessing Leadership Potential at Point of Hire is Essential
It’s crucial that leadership potential is assessed from the moment someone is hired. Far too often, organisations wait until a leader is already struggling before reaching out for help. By then, they’ve already lost valuable time and, in many cases, damaged team morale, productivity, and even the organisational culture.
Research shows that assessing leadership potential during the hiring process is far more effective. Leaders identified early for their potential are significantly more likely to succeed, as they can be developed from the outset, rather than being shoehorned into a role they may not be prepared for. The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD, 2020) found that organisations that proactively assess leadership potential at hire have 2.5 times more success in filling senior roles with internal candidates.
By integrating leadership assessments at the point of hire, companies can ensure that they’re bringing in not just top performers for today, but high-potential leaders for the future. At The Work Psychologists, we’ve designed our FUTURE model to help organisations make these critical hiring decisions by assessing the psychological traits and capabilities that drive long-term leadership success.
The Hidden Traits That Drive Future Leadership Success
Our FUTURE model assesses six key dimensions of leadership potential, all backed by rigorous scientific research. These dimensions focus on the psychological traits that leaders need to thrive in unpredictable environments—traits that should be identified early on, rather than when issues arise.
Firepower (Cognitive Ability): Research has consistently shown that cognitive ability is the single best predictor of leadership success (Schmidt & Hunter, 2004). Leaders with high cognitive agility can adapt quickly, solve complex problems, and make sound decisions even in the face of uncertainty. According to McRae & Furnham (2014), cognitive ability accounts for 40% of the variance in leadership effectiveness.
Uniqueness of You (Personality): Personality is a strong predictor of leadership behaviour. A seminal meta-analysis by Judge et al. (2002) found that personality traits account for almost 50% of leadership variability. We assess key traits like conscientiousness, emotional stability, and openness to experience—traits that drive innovation, resilience, and team success. Research shows that conscientiousness is the most consistent predictor of strong performance (MacRae, 2012), while openness to experience leads to more creative, adaptable leadership (Tendorescu et al., 2017).
Transformational Purpose (Motivation): Motivation is the inner compass that drives leaders to excel. Research by Ryan & Deci (2017) reveals that intrinsic motivation—motivation driven by purpose rather than external rewards—is more predictive of long-term leadership success. Leaders with strong intrinsic motivation set higher goals, persist through challenges, and inspire their teams to do the same.
Uniqueness of the Role: Context matters. Successful leaders in one environment may struggle in another. Research by the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD, 2020) shows that up to 60% of leadership failures result from a poor fit between the leader’s competencies and the role’s demands. Our model assesses leadership potential in the context of the specific role and organisational culture, ensuring the right fit.
Reflective Growth (Learning Agility): Learning agility—the ability to learn from experience and apply that learning to new situations—is critical in today’s fast-changing world. De Meuse et al. (2017) found that learning agility is the second-best predictor of leadership potential after cognitive ability. Leaders who score high in learning agility are 18 times more likely to be identified as high-potential candidates (Dries et al., 2012).
Entrepreneurial Drive (Leading in VUCA Times): Today’s leaders must think like entrepreneurs. A study by Ready et al. (2010) revealed that 90% of leaders who exhibited entrepreneurial drive successfully led their organisations through significant change. Entrepreneurial leaders are visionaries, innovators, and risk-takers who thrive in ambiguity and drive progress even in uncertain conditions.
Why Past Performance and Nine-Box Grids Aren’t Enough
A meta-analysis by Van Iddekinge et al. (2019) found that past performance is a poor predictor of success in more complex, higher-level roles. The reason? Leadership potential isn’t just about what someone has done in the past—it’s about their capacity to grow and adapt in the future.
Silver and Church (2009), renowned for their work on high-potential identification, introduced the concept of “pearls” and “perils,” distinguishing between the characteristics that signal true leadership potential and those that may derail future leaders. Their research underscores the importance of looking beyond competencies and experience to factors like emotional intelligence, learning agility, and the ability to navigate complex environments.
At The Work Psychologists, we build upon these foundations, integrating entrepreneurial drive and learning agility into our FUTURE model, ensuring that leadership assessments are aligned with the realities of today’s business challenges.
The FUTURE Model: Predicting Tomorrow’s Leaders Today
At The Work Psychologists, our FUTURE model is designed to move beyond the traditional, backward-looking approaches to leadership assessment. By focusing on cognitive ability, personality, motivation, learning agility, and entrepreneurial drive, we provide organisations with a future-focused, scientifically validated approach to identifying high-potential leaders.
Our model is rooted in over two decades of leadership research. Leaders who score high in these types of dimensions are 10 times more likely to succeed in senior leadership roles (Schmidt & Hunter, 2004). Moreover, cognitive ability and learning agility together predict over 60% of leadership success in complex roles (De Meuse, 2017).
The Future of Leadership is Here—Are You Ready?
The future of leadership doesn’t rely on past performance or outdated competency models like the Nine-Box Grid. Nor should it be assessed only after things have gone wrong. Leadership potential needs to be identified early, ideally at the point of hire, so that your organisation can proactively develop future-ready leaders. With our FUTURE model, you can confidently identify the leaders who will thrive in your organisation’s most challenging environments.
Don’t wait until leadership problems arise. Contact us at The Work Psychologists to integrate leadership potential assessments into your hiring process and build a future-ready leadership pipeline.
References
Van Iddekinge, C. H., Arnold, J. D., Frieder, R. E., & Roth, P. L. (2019). A meta-analysis of the criterion-related validity of prehire work experience. Personnel Psychology, 72(4), 571-598.
Corporate Research Forum. (2016). Why Leadership Development Programs Fail.
Schmidt, F. L., & Hunter, J. E. (2004). General mental ability in the world of work: Occupational attainment and job performance. Journal of Applied Psychology, 86(2), 162-173.
McRae, I., & Furnham, A. (2014). High potential: How to spot, manage and develop talented people at work. London: Bloomsbury.
Judge, T. A., Bono, J. E., Ilies, R., & Gerhardt, M. W. (2002). Personality and leadership: A qualitative and quantitative review. Journal of Applied Psychology, 87(4), 765-780.
Ryan, R. M., & Deci, E. L. (2017). Self-determination theory: Basic psychological needs in motivation, development, and wellness. New York: Guilford Press.
Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD). (2020). Leadership in the New World.
De Meuse, K., Dai, G., & Hallenbeck, G. S. (2017). Learning agility: Its evolution as a psychological construct and its empirical relationship to leader success. Consulting Psychology Journal: Practice and Research, 69(4), 267–295